Ceasefire is a nationally recognized strategy designed to reduce shootings and homicides, decrease incarceration and recidivism, and build positive police/community relationships. Ceasefire is a community-police partnership that focuses solely on preventing shootings and gun violence incidents that have a high likelihood of retaliation.

The Ceasefire Strategy uses data to understand who is at the highest risk of shooting or being killed, referred to as Very High-Risk individuals. Referrals of these individuals are made to community-based organizations who provide community violence intervention (CVI) services based on their unique relationships with the community.

Very High-Risk individuals are generally defined as meeting at least 5 of 7 risk factors: male, aged 18 to 44, 5 to 8 previous arrests, associated with or active group involvement, previously shot, socially connected to recent shooting or homicide victim, prior criminal justice system involvement.

Very High-Risk individuals are a challenging population to engage in services. The vast majority of these individuals are not looking for services or to change their lifestyle, or actively choosing to engage, but rather are referred to community violence intervention services due to involvement in a recent shooting incident. Hence, the goal is based on the estimate that up to 30% of very high-risk individuals are likely to never engage with community violence intervention service providers.

As such, the specific goal (number) was calculated based on 70% of very high-risk individuals identified in weekly Ceasefire Shooting Review meetings and referred to CVI services. The referral goal was calculated based on 70% of the number of injury shooting incidents in 2023. These goals were developed in collaboration with Ceasefire’s technical assistance contractor, the National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform (NICJR).

2024 was the first full year of Ceasefire operations. Through November, 213 injury and fatal shooting incidents occurred, 219 individuals were identified and assessed in weekly Shooting Reviews, and a total of 256 very high-risk individuals were referred to services (184 through Ceasefire and 72 via community partners). Of the 256 referrals of very high-risk individuals, 151 have engaged in CVI services. Both the number of individuals referred and the number engaged in services exceed goals.

Context: based on the number of 2023 injury shooting incidents (224), Ceasefire goals included:

1. referral of 189 very high-risk individuals to services (70% of 224), and
2. engaging with 132 very high-risk referred individuals (70% of 189)

Data is collected by Ceasefire staff in weekly Shooting Review and Coordination meetings. (Coordination meetings follow the Shooting Reviews and are the forum for discussing individuals identified in the Shooting Review who are not going the route of enforcement or continuing law enforcement investigation.) In these meetings, staff track the number of individuals identified as being involved in shooting incidents (with a focus on injury and fatal shooting incidents), if they are appropriate for referral to CVI services or going enforcement, and the type of service and agency being referred to. After referrals have been made, Ceasefire staff follow-up with contracted agencies to track whether or not referred individuals accept services. Individuals accepting services is used for the engagement metric.

More information can be found on the Portland Ceasefire webpage, including monthly reports.