The 2021 greenhouse gas emissions per capita in Vermont rebounded from 2020 levels, due to a rebound in the Transportation/Mobile Sources sector in a year less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.  Overall emissions in 2021 were still below the levels in 2019 and population estimates for the state increased in 2021, so the per capita value did not increase dramatically from 2020.  Year to year variability is common due to the multitude of factors that influence the calculations, however 2020 was certainly more of an outlier given the extreme transportation pattern and behavioral changes associated with the early days of the pandemic.  

With the establishment of the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) and development and adoption of the Initial Climate Action Plan (CAP) by the Vermont Climate Council, a number of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies have been put forward to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the state and move Vermont towards meeting our GWSA requirements.  A process is currently ongoing that will update the CAP to both revise existing actions and incorporate additional actions where warranted.  

The Global Warming Solutions Act established mandatory statewide greenhouse gas emissions levels as opposed to aspirational targets for 2025, 2030, and 2050.  The 2025 requirement is based on the Paris goals and is 26% below 2005 levels.  The 2030 and 2050 goals are 40% and 80% below the 1990 baseline respectively.  Because of the specific dates in the statute (January 1, 2025, January 1, 2030, and January 1, 2050) the actual annual emissions totals that determine whether Vermont has achieved the necessary reductions will be for calendar years 2024, 2029, and 2049.

Population values for 2018 and 2019 are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (NST-EST2019-01) released in December 2019.  Population values for 2020 are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (NST-EST2022-POP) released in December 2022.  The estimate for 2021 is from the U.S. Census Bureau, Table 1,  Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023.  The greenhouse gas emissions values that inform the per capita values are taken from the latest VT GHG Emissions Update issued in July 2024.  The data are reported as annual values that were calculated as a part of the Vermont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast (1990 - 2021) report.  Greenhouse gas emissions calculations are generally based on some measure of activity data (e.g. fuel sales) coupled with process specific emissions factors, however the methodologies vary by inventory sector.  The several year lag in emissions estimates is due to several factors, the main one being the inherent lag time in large federal datasets utilized in a portion of the calculations.