What is the Story Behind the Curve?

In this section, list the key factors underlying the historic baseline and forecast for the indicator. Identify:

• Contributing factors that are supporting progress, and;
• Restricting factors that are hindering progress.

Progress is defined as turning the curve of the baseline (or accelerating the curve if it is already headed in the right direction).

It is important to identify not just the most immediate and easily observed factors impacting the baseline (i.e., the “proximate causes”), but to engage in the kind of rigorous analysis that will identify the underlying or more systemic factors (i.e., the “root causes”). It is also important to conduct additional research where necessary and feasible.

Once the root causes have been identified, prioritize those root causes according to which have the greatest influence on progress and, therefore, are the most critical to address to improve progress.

The best format is a “bullet” for each root cause with a brief header that is underlined and a brief description of the root cause.

Who can help?

Identify potential partners, including current ones, who may have a role to play in improving progress. The identification of root causes impacting progress will often point the way to the types of partners who should be engaged.

The best format is to bullet each partner with a short description of their role, 

What Works?

Before selecting a strategy or action plan to undertake to turn the curve of the baseline, it is necessary to determine whether what would work to turn the curve is known. And it is important to be sure to explore the full range of options for strategies or action plans. A strategy or action plan may, of course, involve the discontinuation of existing activities as well as the implementation of new ones. And in most cases a strategy or action plan should be multi-year and integrated. The following are criteria to consider in developing options:

What is our proposed strategy?

Selecting the proposed strategy or action plan involves applying four criteria to each of the options: leverage, feasibility (or reach), specificity, and values.

• Leverage: How strongly will the proposed strategy or action impact progress as measured by the baselines?
• Feasibility (or reach). Is the proposed strategy or action plan feasible? Can it be done?
• Specificity. Is the strategy or action plan specific enough to be implemented? Is there a timeline with deliverables that answers the questions: Who? What? When? Where? How?
• Values. Is the strategy consistent with the values of the community and/or agency?

Once elements of the proposed strategy or action plan are selected, list them in order of priority. The best format is a “bullet” for each element which provides a brief header that is underlined and a brief description of the element. The specificity of your action plan can be outlined in the Actions on the Turn the Curve Template
.