February 2025 - 

As a result of increased enrollment in CalWORKs, CalFresh, and GA programs in FY 2023-24, the enrollment of these clients in employment services significantly increased. For FY 2023-24 our projection was 900, but partner service providers instead served a total of 2,354 individuals. According to the Legislative Analyst’s Office, the CalWORKs program projects a caseload growth of about 5% from FY 2023-24 to FY 2024-25. This increase is based on the administration's estimates and reflects the anticipated rise in the number of families needing assistance.

The California Department of Social Services (CDSS) estimates for CalWORKs caseloads are as follows:

• • FY 2024-25: The caseload is projected to increase by approximately 5% compared to FY 2023-24.
  • FY 2025-26: The caseload is expected to remain relatively stable with a slight increase, reflecting the ongoing economic conditions and policy changes.

These projections are part of the broader budget planning and are subject to change based on economic factors and policy adjustments.

Previous Years -

The projected decline in enrollments in community partner programs annually between FY 19-20 and FY 20-21 projected mirrors the impact of a decrease in job placements are due to COVID-19. Many employed participants lost their jobs when shelter-in-place began, and some participants chose not to pursue immediate employment due to health/safety concerns. As the pandemic and recession has affected all communities, the job market in the Bay Area has become more competitive, making it more difficult for participants with other barriers to employment to get hired. 

Service providers did in fact experience a significant enrollment reduction during the FY 19-20 and FY 20-21 reporting period due to COVID-19. Our County had planned in FY 20-21 to serve 672 individuals but instead served a total of 137 individuals. However, despite of reduced number of clients, program exceeded its goal in job placement and percent of clients employed through community contracts.

As the economy continues to show signs of improvement and the unemployment rate continues to drop, it is anticipated that the County will see in FY 21-22 and FY22 –23 an increase in program enrollments by individuals who have barriers to employment and need the County’s employment and training services to assist them with attaining employment.

Add figures for CEC and Work Experience contracts.  For the CECs:  From the Monthly Report for Distribution for June (end of FY) for the fiscal year of interest, add the numbers from "GA started Job Club" from Goal 2 and "CW started Job Club" from Goal 2 for all quarters.  Monthly Reports can be found here:  M:\Program Evaluation and Research\Current Projects\Brenda\WBA\Career Centers\Monthly Reports – then navigate to appropriate year and last month of the fiscal year.  All data for the Monthly Reports is drawn from CalWIN by Brenda Lorentzen of GCR / Office of Policyusing Access.  For Work Experience:  From the Q4 Quarterly Report for the appropriate fiscal year, add numbers for "# Enrolled Participants" for all quarters.  The reports can be found here:  M:\Program Evaluation and Research\Current Projects\Brenda\WBA\WEN-CS-VTR\Monthly Reports – then navigate to appropriate report.  Qaseem Elmi of GCR / Office of Policy, is in charge of the Work Experience contracts now and may be the person who has custody of the Work Experience reports in the future.